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Monetary Policy: Recalibrating Expectations in Q2
Second Quarter, 2024
John R. Sides, CFA
For fixed income investors, 2024 has largely been defined by a recalibration of monetary policy expectations. This was on full display as another previously expected Fed cut was priced out of the futures market during the quarter. On March 31st, almost three Fed Funds rate cuts were expected by year-end. By the end of June…
Bond Market Momentum: A Closer look at Q1 Markets
John R. Sides, CFA
First Quarter, 2024
As we approached the beginning of 2024, the market narrative around a “Fed pivot” was firmly in place. On January 1st, front-end interest rates were pricing in expectations of 150 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. Expectations of significant easing would offer a definitive boom to equities, corporate credit, structured products…
Market Resilience: Adapting to Shifting Economic Landscapes in Q4
Fourth Quarter, 2023
John R. Sides, CFA
What a difference a quarter makes. In October, market strategists were lamenting what was sure to be the third straight year of negative total returns in the U.S. bond market. Throughout October corporate credit, certain areas within securitized products, and U.S. Treasuries all weakened to varying degrees. Then the market…
Shifting Gears: Fed's First Rate Cut and Q3 Dynamics
Third Quarter, 2024
John R. Sides, CFA
As inflation data moderated and growth remained intact, the third quarter witnessed the long-anticipated initial rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Having all but declared victory on inflation, the message from Powell was that it is time to shift focus towards the other half of the dual mandate – maximum employment. The Fed pointed to weakening payrolls data…
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